Remember back in July, before Nebraska won its first game of the season but also before the offense looked a little bit stumbly and before a Sun Belt team entered the fourth quarter within a touchdown at Memorial Stadium?
The assorted Big Ten media picked Scott Frost’s team as the favorite in the Big Ten West in an annual poll compiled by .
NU became a trendy pick overall, as Phil Steele’s most improved team in the nation (and a Rose Bowl team), to a West representative in Indianapolis to, in at least one case, a darkhorse College Football Playoff contender.
Then, 60 minutes of iffy offense and, well, not all that much happened, actually.
The Huskers dropped one spot to No. 25 in The Associated Press Poll and entered the coaches’ poll at No. 25 even after one of the voting coaches, NU’s own Frost, said Saturday, “We certainly didn't look like that type of team today.â€
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Interestingly, though, Nebraska carries something of a split opinion heading into a Week 2 tilt at Colorado (1-0).
Voters? Seemingly not dissuaded. Fans? At least somewhat concerned. Predictive computer models? Not particularly impressed.
Consider how the three following computer models predict Year 2 under Frost proceeding from here by current national ranking and estimated win total, respectively:
Massey Ratings: 45, 6.22
: 34, 6.6
ESPN’s Football Power Index: 43, 6.5
Bill Connelly’s SP+, also at ESPN, pegged NU No. 39 and at a projected 6.8 wins before the season and the Huskers fell to No. 54 after Week 1.
No. 55 this week? Colorado.
As Connelly pointed out earlier this week when he rolled out his most recent 1-130 Division I rankings, his model — and most others — are still pulling mostly on preseason projections and then just one week of hard data.
Frost summed up the early season unknowns on Monday when he said, in reference to Nebraska’s offense, “That game (South Alabama) is either going to be a harbinger of things to come this season, or we are going to look back on it as the best thing that ever happened to us because it was a learning experience.â€
That’s the great part about college football at this juncture. Nobody knows which way NU’s season will ultimately go. Not voters, not fans, not computer models.
Last year’s Nebraska/Colorado game in Lincoln is a perfect example. The teams played a close game — Colorado ultimately prevailed, 33-28 — and the teams immediately went in opposite directions. By October 6, Nebraska fell to 0-5 and Colorado improved to 5-0 and pushed well into the top 25. Then, by the end of November, the Huskers had engineered a second-half turnaround and Colorado’s coaching staff was fired after the Buffs lost seven straight and didn’t even qualify for a bowl game.
To convolute the matter further, Nebraska’s defense got off to a solid start and the offense stalled. After a week, Connelly’s metrics peg the Husker offense No. 79 and the defense No. 41.
Nebraska ran just 17 plays in the second half against South Alabama and 66 overall, well below the 72.3 it averaged a year ago and far below the rate Frost wants to reel them off.
As such, NU never got in an offensive rhythm. Standout junior wide receiver JD Spielman was targeted just three times, all early on. Same for junior tight end Jack Stoll. Spielman averaged 12 yards per target, Stoll 22. Wan’Dale Robinson got seven targets (and four carries), but at least a couple of the targets came in low-percentage situations at the end of broken or scramble plays.
“There were quite a few guys I wish we could have gotten the ball to more, but we couldn’t sustain drives and didn’t get a lot of our plays called on Saturday,†Frost said earlier this week.
Frost on Thursday said he thought the Husker offense would benefit greatly from a healthy week of practice.
“One of the reasons practice was better is because we had everybody back up and full speed this week,†Frost said. “Cam Jurgens gets healthier every week, (senior wide receiver) Kanawai Noa was practicing full all week, (sophomore running back) Maurice Washington being in the fold is going to help and he practiced full this week, JD practiced full.
“So a lot of guys that had missed reps got a bunch more this week, and repetitions matter.â€
Ultimately, that group of players is going to have a large bearing on which way Nebraska’s season goes. After one week, though, it’s far too early to say much about which direction that’s going to be.
2 sides of the coin for Nebraska's foes for 2019
2 sides of the coin for Nebraska's foes for 2019
Minnesota (Oct. 12)
The good side (heads):Â Every player who did anything of note statistically returns offensively. Tyler Johnson and Rashod Bateman provide quality targets at receiver, and Mohamed Ibrahim, Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks give Minnesota three excellent running backs.
The flip side (tails): Minnesota needs better QB play, whether it's Tanner Morgan or Zack Annexstad, to complement the rest of the weapons on that side of the ball. The 'D' improved after a coordinator change last year — does that momentum continue?
Indiana (Oct. 26)
The good side (heads):Â A lot of talent back offensively, including quarterback Peyton Ramsey and running back Stevie Scott. Hoosiers are just good enough to play anyone tough.
The flip side (tails):Â The lack of overall depth will continue to keep this program down. The Hoosiers last season were seventh or worse in the conference in scoring offense and defense, rushing offense and defense, passing defense and total offense and defense. There just aren't enough horses in the stable.
Purdue (Nov. 2)
The good side (heads):Â Perhaps the best big-play offense in the league, with strong-armed quarterback Elijah Sindelar throwing to Rondale Moore. There are some holes to fill, but those two provide a good place to start.
The flip side (tails):Â If it weren't for Illinois, the Boilermakers would have had the worst defense in the Big Ten last season. Purdue allowed 30 or more points seven times, including four times in its last five games.
Wisconsin (Nov. 16)
The good side (heads):Â No program has a more entrenched identity than the Badgers, even after a down year last season. That will allow the Badgers to weather the rough times that will undoubtedly come as they work to plug several holes on both sides of the ball.
The flip side (tails):Â Wisconsin has won in spite of its quarterback play for what seems like forever now, and that may continue in 2019. Four-star recruit Graham Mertz is an intriguing prospect, but he may not beat out Jack Coan for the starting job. UW could use a difference-maker at the position.
Maryland (Nov. 23)
The good side (heads):Â New head coach Mike Locksley is an ace recruiter, and the Terps need all the bodies they can get. There are some interesting pieces, especially offensively, and Locksley should lure even more to College Park.
The flip side (tails):Â There might not be a more star-crossed team in the country when it comes to injuries. Maryland will have its fifth different opening-day starter at quarterback in the past five seasons, and already this year the Terps have lost promising sophomore receiver Jeshaun Jones for the season with a torn ACL.
Iowa (Nov. 29)
The good side (heads):Â The Hawkeyes will be able to control a lot of games with their defensive line, and there might not be a better team in the conference at getting after the quarterback. Big, tough and physical will go a long way when you're playing defense.
The flip side (tails):Â Even with a veteran quarterback in Nate Stanley and veteran tackles in Alaric Jackson and Tristan Wirfs, the offense just isn't dynamic. For a team built on running the ball Iowa wasn't particularly good on the ground last season, ranking 10th in the league in rushing.