Nebraska’s 21-13 loss to Northwestern a year ago stands as likely the least dramatic of the three one-score games between these two teams since Scott Frost became the coach.
On that day, Nov. 7, 2020, the Huskers threw two interceptions in the end zone — one each from Adrian Martinez and Luke McCaffrey — and lost despite having twice as many first downs as the Wildcats. They scored on only three of six trips total into the red zone, committed four offensive line penalties in the first quarter alone, missed a field goal, gave up a big punt return that set up a fourth-quarter touchdown that extended Northwestern’s lead to eight and saw Martinez get benched late in the third quarter.
That’s a recipe for losing a close game, but it pales in comparison to 2018, when NU dominated most of the game and looked almost sure to give Frost his first win as the head coach of his alma mater.
Northwestern, though, scored 10 points in the final 2 minutes, 27 seconds of regulation, including an eight-play, 99-yard drive that culminated with JJ Jefferson’s tying touchdown catch with 12 seconds left.
One-score games under Scott Frost
Opponent
Date
Score
Colorado
9/8/18
L 33-28
Troy
9/15/18
L 24-19
at Northwestern
10/13/18
L 34-31, OT
at Ohio State
11/3/18
L 36-31
MSU
11/17/18
W 9-6
at Iowa
11/23/18
L 31-28
at Colorado
9/7/19
L 34-31 OT
at Illinois
9/21/19
W 42-38
Northwestern
10/5/19
W 13-10
Indiana
10/26/19
L 38-31
at Purdue
11/2/19
L 31-27
Iowa
11/29/19
L 27-24
at Northwestern
11/7/20
L 21-13
Penn State
11/14/20
W 30-23
at Iowa
11/27/20
L 26-20
Minnesota
12/12/20
L 24-17
at Rutgers
12/18/20
W 28-21
at Illinois
8/28/21
L 30-22
at Oklahoma
9/18/21
L 23-16
at MSU
9/25/21
L 23-20, OT
Then Nebraska turned the ball over in overtime and Northwestern won it on a field goal.
In between those games, the Huskers staged an improbable victory of their own in 2019 at Memorial Stadium when a Lamar Jackson interception set up a big play from Noah Vedral to Wan'Dale Robinson to get the home team into field-goal range in the waning minutes. Walk-on defensive back Lane McCallum, pushed into emergency place-kicking duties, somehow squeezed a low kick through about three different sets of Northwestern arms and over the crossbar for a walk-off, 13-10 win.
All of that is illustrative of the way this series has been since Nebraska joined the Big Ten.
It also clearly shows many of the main themes that have cost the Huskers time and again in close games and have led to the program’s ugly 5-15 mark in one-possession games under Frost, including 5-11 against the Big Ten.Â
“Every game in this league is close, it seems like," Frost said. "Everybody’s so even in this league, and that is why little things matter so much. But this is an exceptionally well-coached, disciplined, intelligent team that doesn’t beat itself.
“You know you’re going to be in close games with teams like that.â€
Indeed, 16 of 28 Big Ten games (and 20 of 37 overall) in Frost's tenure have been within a possession. More often than not, the Huskers have come out on the losing end. Their propensity for self-inflicted damage shows through particularly when the margins elsewhere are narrow.Â
Year-by-year in one-score games, Frost’s tenure look like this:
2018: 1-5.
2019: 2-4.
2020: 2-3.
2021: 0-3.
The Huskers are 2-8 in such games against their West Division foes. The only two wins came two weeks apart when that McCallum field goal against Northwestern followed a furious second-half comeback at Illinois in a 42-38 victory.
Nebraska on Saturday night outgained Michigan State by 186 yards, the biggest yardage advantage in a one-score loss since Frost took over.
“You look up and, despite the guys doing everything right for a half of football and dominating a half of football, you get that momentum swing and take another gut punch,†Frost said.
In 15 one-possession losses, Nebraska’s had 100-plus more yards than its opponent four times and some level of advantage eight times total. The Huskers’ most extreme yardage differentials in close games have actually come in wins pockmarked by turnovers. In that 42-38 game, they had 386 more yards than Illinois and last December they racked up 368 more than Rutgers in a 28-21 victory.
That win over the Scarlet Knights came one month after they managed to beat Penn State by seven despite 203 fewer yards.
In all, Nebraska’s fortune in any particular close game isn’t as simple as pointing to one play or one stat, let alone is there a simple answer for losing three out of every four. Even Saturday night, when Frost said he hadn’t even considered that NU could give away the momentum it had built against the Spartans, there’s more than one ill-fated punt to point to.
“It’s a team game and there are a lot of other plays in that game that could have changed the outcome, as well,†Martinez said.
So far this year, Nebraska has not shown enough progress in limiting its own errors to reverse its reputation as a team that finds ways to lose rather than finds ways to win.
Look at the schedule, and it appears there may well be several more chances over the coming weeks, starting as soon as Saturday night at Memorial Stadium.
“Northwestern’s going to come to play and they’re going to be a team that’s really well coached,†Martinez said. “They’re not going to make mistakes. They know what they are doing. They are going to do their homework. So, we have to be ready. We have to go out there and win the game.
“They’re not going to give it to us.â€
Photos: Nebraska meets No. 20 Michigan State in East Lansing
“Just to be recognized by your university, but also recognized by some of the other athletes that played other sports, I just think that’s unique.â€
Nebraska coach Scott Frost reacts after a fourth-quarter touchdown was called back due to a holding call against the Huskers during a game against Minnesota late in the 2020 COVID season.