The National Weather Service issued multiple “red flag” warnings and fire watches across the state last week, alerting Nebraska to the danger of fire created by dry conditions and high winds.
That’s just what the state got, with grass fires causing an evacuation order south of North Platte and multiple fires breaking out across Gage County.
While red flag conditions aren’t in the immediate forecast because high winds are not expected in the next week, the dry conditions, created as Nebraska reentered a yearslong drought, will continue, with no more than a 25% chance of rain in the next 10 days as of Tuesday.
In Lancaster County, steady rains in late spring and early summer brought the area out of the nearly two-year-long drought in mid-June, and following one of the wettest Julys on record, it appeared the drought had been overcome.
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But since Aug. 1, Lincoln has received only 1.7 inches of rain, which is about 4.5 inches below normal. That included only 0.2 inches in September, the fourth-lowest amount ever for the month.
Throw in unseasonably warm temperatures — Lincoln recorded its second-highest October temperature ever when the mercury hit 97 degrees during the Nebraska-Rutgers football game Saturday and highs across the state have hovered 10 to 15 degrees above normal for the last month — and you have the makings of a state-wide tinderbox.
The development of those conditions, drought, high winds and high temperatures, doesn’t come as a surprise.
They are evidence of the increasing impact of global warming and climate change on Nebraska, where, in Lincoln, it is estimated that the climate may warm as much as 5 degrees by 2050, creating harsher weather conditions, including massive rainfall and flooding, and more extreme weather as a result.
Statewide, those changes will not only make fire danger ever more likely, but will affect agricultural production as severe weather events degrade both the soil and water quality – critical elements for any successful farm or ranch operation.
Plus, the predicted long periods of drought will put increasing pressure to mine one of the state’s most valuable resources — groundwater in the Ogallala aquifer — for irrigation.
As the Journal Star editorial board has maintained for more than a decade, the state and its political subdivisions need to develop strategies, like Lincoln’s Climate Action Plan, to try to prepare for the changing climate.
Those plans need to go beyond reduction of carbon emissions, which is critical to battling overall climate change, to more specific efforts, such as increasing rural fire protection, regulating irrigation water use, preparing for flooding and establishing ways to help residents deal with 90-degree days and high humidity, that will continue to grow in number.
And, they need to begin or intensify as soon as possible, because the fires, 90 degrees in October heat, and months with little rainfall are showing that climate change is hitting ever harder with no sign of slowing down.