A handful of races this fall will determine whether Nebraska Republicans solidify their 33-vote majority in the state Legislature or go back to sitting on the cusp of that goalÌý— and being frustrated on some high-profile issues.
Party leaders reached the 33-vote threshold in April, when Sen. Mike McDonnell of Omaha switched his party registration from Democrat to Republican.
Having that many members should help Republicans pass desired legislation by allowing them to succeed with filibuster-ending cloture motions, if all members vote together. But a trio of political observers said it's not clear whether the party can keep that number of seats, let alone get their members to vote as a bloc on controversial issues.
"I think in the end you will net the same party registration as currently exists but I believe it will be a less conservative body," predicted Perre Neilan, a Republican political consultant and strategist.Ìý
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The unicameral Nebraska Legislature is nonpartisan, meaning candidates appear on the ballot without a party designation and lawmakers serve without regard to party membership. In addition, political parties are not part of the legislative structure, in contrast to Congress and other states.Ìý
Parties matter in nonpartisan Legislature
However, the most hotly contested issues tend to split along party lines. Both major political parties work to elect their own members to the Legislature and pressure members to vote party positions.Ìý
McDonnell changed parties, he had said, because his opposition to abortion was not respected by Democrats. Even before switching, he joined GOP lawmakers to become the 33rd vote on bills limiting abortion, creating state-funded private school scholarships, banning minors from getting transgender medical care and allowing Nebraskans to carry concealed weapons without a permit.
On the other hand, slim vote margins meant the fate of other hot button legislation has been determined by one or two GOP lawmakers. Last year, Sen. Merv Riepe of Ralston sank a bill to ban abortion at about six weeks by refusing to vote cloture on the measure.Ìý
A combined 12-week abortion ban and transgender care for minors ban passed only after Sen. Julie Slama of Dunbar left her hospital bed to cast the 33rd vote. This spring and summer, two or three GOP lawmakers have blocked efforts to return Nebraska to a winner-take-all system for awarding electoral votes.Ìý
The 25 legislative seats up for election this fall offer opportunities for both parties. Nine of those seats are held by Democrats and 16 by Republicans. Party affiliation will not change for nine of the total, including one uncontested seat and eight in which both candidates are of the same party as the incumbent.
The stakes of this election are reflected in the amount of money being spent. As of the end of September, the general election candidates had raised a total of nearly $7.2 million and spent $4.9 million. The most expensive race was in Omaha's District 31, where incumbent Sen. Kathleen Kauth, a Republican, is facing Democrat Mary Ann Folchert. Together, they have spent nearly $381,000.Ìý
Republicans are guaranteed to pick up Fremont's District 15 seat. Both candidates running to replace Sen. Lynne Walz are Republicans. Walz, who is term-limited, is a Democrat.
The remaining 15 races feature candidates of differing parties, with 11 pitting Republicans against Democrats. Another two have a nonpartisan candidate running against a Republican and one has a nonpartisan candidate versus a Democrat. In the final race, Sen. Terrell McKinney, an incumbent Democrat, is facing a write-in campaign by former Sen. Ernie Chambers, who is registered nonpartisan.
These races may determine outcomeÌý
Walt Radcliffe, a veteran lobbyist with multiple clients, said he's keeping a close eye on the two races in Sarpy County. Both have been held by Democrats for the past four years but are being hotly contested by GOP candidates and could flip.Ìý
In District 49, the Democratic incumbent, Sen. Jen Day of Omaha, is facing Republican challenger Bob Andersen. She won the primary but garnered only 43% of the vote against two Republican challengers, an outcome that suggests her support may be weak.Ìý
But Paul Landow, a political scientist on the University of Nebraska at Omaha faculty, said he thinks Day is in "pretty good shape," even though Republican voters predominate in the district. He noted that, four years ago, Day defeated a Republican incumbent who then-Gov. Pete Ricketts appointed.Ìý
In District 3, the other Sarpy County seat up for election, the Democratic incumbent, Sen. Carol Blood of Bellevue, is term-limited. Felix Ungerman, a Republican, and Victor Rountree, a Democrat, are competing to replace her.
Ungerman won the primary but Rountree has been campaigning hard for the seat and observers say he should not be counted out. Landow said the district has sometimes been considered a swing district, while Neilan said he would not be surprised to see either man prevail.
Meanwhile, Grand Island's District 35 could end up flipping from Republican to Democrat. The GOP incumbent is Sen. Ray Aguilar, who returned to the Legislature after being term-limited out in 2009. Four years ago, he defeated then-incumbent Sen. Dan Quick, a Democrat.
Now, Quick is seeking to oust Aguilar in what Radcliffe called "a battle of two incumbents." Quick won the primary and has been working hard at door-to-door campaigning, which could give him the edge in the general election, even though Aguilar has backing from Gov. Jim Pillen and U.S. Sen. Pete Ricketts.Ìý
District 5, represented by the now-Republican McDonnell, is likely to flip back to being a Democratic seat. The candidates competing to replace McDonnell, who is term-limited, include Margo Juarez, a Democrat, and Gilbert Ayala, a Republican. Juarez is the better-funded of the two and won the three-way primary. Democrats predominate among district voters.Ìý
Other races of interest, although they are unlikely to alter the political balance in the Legislature include:
* District 19, where Sen. Rob Dover is running to keep the Norfolk-based seat he was appointed to in 2022. He took second in the three-way primary to Jeanne Reigle. Both are Republicans. Dover has support from Ricketts and other GOP office holders. Reigle has support from former gubernatorial candidate Charles W. Herbster.
* District 11, He won the primary by four votes over Chambers, who has been term-limited out twice before and is the longest serving lawmaker in Nebraska history. Chambers, who is registered nonpartisan, withdrew from the race in July, then filed paperwork in early September to become a write-in candidate. He said at the time that he hoped the opportunity to vote for him would bring people to the polls who might not otherwise vote.ÌýÌý
Here is the Lincoln Journal Star's comprehensive guide to the 2024 Nebraska general election.Ìý