With COVID-19 cases leveling off locally, officials are expressing concern about what colder weather could bring.
After declining 43% from the beginning of September to the end of the month, cases have now gone up slightly each of the past two weeks.
"This is a situation we've seen before — a surge, then a decline, then a plateau before case numbers drop again," Lincoln-Lancaster County Health Director Pat Lopez said Tuesday during a city briefing.
However, there's no guarantee that case numbers are going to drop further, especially with colder weather around the corner.
Lopez said it's hard to predict what will happen as more people start to spend more time inside, but the potential for more transmission is there.
"Going back inside is something that we are concerned about," she said.
Last year at this time, cases were at similar levels — 642 for the week ending Oct. 16, 2020, compared with 609 for the week that just ended Saturday. Then they took off, nearly doubling in just three weeks and tripling in just five.
The big difference this time around is that about 75% of adults and 60% of all county residents are vaccinated.
But that still leaves more than 50,000 people who are eligible to get a vaccine who have not yet done so.
"Our concern is the safety of those individuals," Lopez said.
Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show that unvaccinated people are six times more likely to get COVID-19 and 11 times more likely to die from it than people who have been fully vaccinated.
About 80% of the people hospitalized locally for the disease are not vaccinated, and more than 90% of those in intensive care or on ventilators are not vaccinated.
A large portion of eligible unvaccinated people are younger, especially those in the college age range. Only 50% of those ages 16-24 are vaccinated, compared with 60% of those 12-15 and 66% of those 25-34.
Lopez said many people in that age group believe they are healthy and are unlikely to get seriously ill. But she said what they don't consider is the potential to pass it on to someone else who may get severely ill.
That's especially a concern for seniors, even if they are vaccinated, because older vaccinated people continue to die at a much higher rate than younger ones.
Lancaster County reported three more COVID-19 deaths Tuesday, two of whom — men in their 70s — were vaccinated. The other person, a woman in her 60s, was not vaccinated.
Overall, 17 county residents have died of COVID-19 so far this month. Seven of them were vaccinated; only one was younger than 70.
The Health Department also reported 89 new cases Tuesday.
There are 93 hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Lincoln, 52 of whom are from Lancaster County. There are 14 patients on ventilators, nine of whom live outside the county.
People over age 65 and those with certain health conditions or jobs that put them at risk can get booster shots if they received the Pfizer vaccine, and Lopez said more than 7,100 have so far through the Health Department.
Lopez said the department held a booster dose clinic for educators and child care providers last week at Lincoln Southeast High School and has additional clinics scheduled Wednesday at Pinnacle Bank Arena and Saturday at North Star High School. She said booster clinics also are planned Thursday at the Asian Community and Culture Center and the F Street Community Center.
Lopez also encouraged people to wear a mask whenever they are indoors. Lancaster County has an indoor mask mandate in effect until at least Oct. 28. While Lopez did not discuss the mandate Tuesday, she hinted that current case numbers and the current test positivity rate make it likely the mandate will be extended.
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