Thirty-three is the magic number.
That's the figure that would allow a Republican majority in the nonpartisan Legislature to break the back of the filibuster and take command of the legislative agenda for the next two years.
Here's the math:
The current lineup of senators is composed of 30 Republicans, 18 Democrats and one independent, Sen. Ernie Chambers of Omaha, who usually votes with the Democrats.
Only one of the six seats that will be vacated this year as a result of term limits is held by a Republican, so this clearly is a year of opportunity for Republicans with Democrats most at risk.
This moment arrives along with a new and no doubt larger — and therefore somewhat unpredictable — voter base, expanded by what is a mail-in voting deluge prompted by the coronavirus pandemic and an electric presidential election year.
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In a heavily Republican state — 599,087 registered Republicans, 366,099 registered Democrats — that typically might tend to benefit Republican candidates, even those who appear on the ballot as nonpartisan candidates for a seat in the Legislature.
But the large mail-in vote appears to be substantially divided in terms of party affiliation, with both Democrats and Republicans exhibiting early enthusiasm.Â
There also are 269,709 registered nonpartisans, or independents, in the mix and that's a wild card, perhaps especially this year. Â
The results of legislative races in Nebraska do not historically adhere to party affiliation, reflecting the nonpartisan feature of this state's unique one-house legislature and the independent nature of the voter, especially in local races.
While 18 Democrats sit in the Legislature today, Democrats hold a voter registration edge in only 10 legislative districts, although two others are almost even.Â
Sens. Lynne Walz of Fremont, Dan Quick of Grand Island and Carol Blood of Bellevue are incumbents who are Democrats seeking reelection in districts that are substantially Republican, but all three rode through the May primary election appearing to be in good shape.
Recent private polling suggests Walz, in particular, remains in strong position leading into the final days.
However, the primary election was five months ago in a year of rapidly moving change. So all three districts bear watching.
Republican gains, if there are any, are considered most likely to come from a trio of urban districts now represented by senators who are Democrats who will be term-limited out of office in January.
Off-the-record discussions with close legislative observers, including lobbyists who keep careful track of the political landscape as part of their jobs, point to those three districts as perhaps the key — but certainly not only — battlegrounds.
All three are districts where registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats, although the edge in one district is slight.
So this might be ground zero:
* District 29 in Lincoln, represented by Sen. Kate Bolz, who is now her party's nominee for the 1st District House seat held by Republican Rep. Jeff Fortenberry. Â
* District 31 in Omaha, represented by Sen. Rick Kolowski.
* District 45 in Sarpy County, represented by Sen. Sue Crawford of Bellevue.
The GOP voter registration advantage in those districts ranges from huge in District 31 to narrow in Lincoln's District 29, where party allegiance is almost even: 11,153 Republicans, 10,312 Democrats.Â
District 45 has a comfortable Republican edge.
Candidates who are Republicans ran out front in the first two districts in the May primary election, although the results were close. In District 45, a Democrat ran ahead in a tight race.Â
The largest margin in any of those three districts was 650 votes, so all remain highly competitive and up for grabs.
Other legislative contests are also hovering near the radar screen.
In the May primary election, Sen. Andrew La Grone, a Republican appointed to the Legislature by Gov. Pete Ricketts, ran behind challenger Jen Day, a Democrat, in Sarpy County's District 49. Â
However, La Grone trailed by just 627 votes in a district with a huge GOP voter registration advantage of 7,525. And La Grone has had a big advantage in campaign resources.
Recent private polling surprisingly suggests that Lincoln's District 21 might turn out to be more competitive than originally expected, especially after Sen. Mike Hilgers, a Republican, ran comfortably ahead in a three-candidate primary race.Â
Hilgers is opposed by Brodey Weber, a 23-year-old Democrat.
Republicans hold a 1,972-voter registration edge in that district.
As Election Day approaches, the dynamics in some of the contests might be changing. In District 31 in Omaha, a negative Nebraska Republican Party mailer may have backfired.
That legislative contest pits former state Sen. Rich Pahls, a Republican, against Tim Royers, a Democrat who has been a popular young teacher at Millard West High School and was 2016 Nebraska Teacher of the Year.Â
A GOP mailer directly attacked Royers' teaching content, sparking a substantial backlash that may have worked to his advantage.
The district's Republican registration majority is substantial — 13,379 to 7,409 — and Pahls led in a five-candidate primary field, but by only 231 votes.
Pahls, a former Millard School District principal and a member of the Omaha City Council, swiftly condemned the Nebraska GOP mailer.
Kolowski, a Democrat, is a former principal of Millard West High School.
Lincoln's District 29 pits Jacob Campbell, a Republican, against Eliot Bostar, a Democrat. Campbell led by 650 votes in a six-candidate contest in May.
In Sarpy County's District 45, Susan Hester, a Democrat, led Rita Sanders, a Republican and former mayor of Bellevue, by a scant 159 votes in the primary election. Â
Although some competitive races are easy to spot in advance of Tuesday's general election, there could be some legislative surprises ahead in an election year in which an unprecedented flood of voters, many of them obviously new, are likely to participate.
But even if Republicans reach their goal of 33 senators, there's one more factor to consider: Sen. John McCollister.
The Omaha senator, a Republican who is aligned with the more traditional values of his party and actively critical of President Donald Trump on Twitter, agrees more often than not with senators who are Democrats on a range of key issues.
So, even if Republicans reach the filibuster-proof number of 33 senators in the nonpartisan Legislature in 2021, they could be one vote short of controlling the legislative results.
The 2020 Journal Star general election Voter's Guide
Your guide to Lincoln-area and statewide races and ballot questions that will appear on the Nov. 3 general election ballot. Click on a race name to see the candidates and learn about their views on the issues.
Nebraska voters will decide whether to cap the maximum annual rates associated with payday loans at 36% following a successful ballot initiative.
Nebraska voters will determine whether to allow casino gambling to enter the state when they consider a three-pronged initiative on the genera…
Republican Sen. Ben Sasse is seeking reelection to a second six-year term and will face Democratic nominee Chris Janicek of Omaha on the ballot.
Nebraska holds three seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Eastern Nebraska's 1st District includes Lincoln; the 2nd District includes O…
Southeast Community College is led by an 11-member board of governors that meets on the third Tuesday of every month.
The Lower Platte South Natural Resources District covers about 1,600 square miles in Southeast Nebraska, including most of Lancaster and Cass …
Only one of the two seats on the Lancaster County Board of Commissioners up for election this year features a contested race.
The University of Nebraska Board of Regents consists of eight members elected to serve six-year terms representing districts across the state.
The State Board of Education sets state education policy and regulations, and oversees the Nebraska Department of Education.
Judges in Nebraska are appointed by the governor and then retained by popular vote. It is extremely rare for a sitting judge to be voted out o…
IN LINCOLN
View the Voter's Guide as it appeared in the Journal Star print edition.