Handicapping the Academy Awards is not all that different from picking winners in a horse race. Get the racing form, take a good look at the most recent races and the level of competition, make a few judgments about the nature of the race and the entrants and head to the window to put down the bet.
There is one big difference -- in horse racing each race has nothing to do with the one that came before or after, but the Oscars tend to go in groups, with one picture picking up the majority of the awards for which it is nominated, repeatedly defeating the same challengers.
In 2017, that big winner will be “La La Land.â€
Here’s why -- first, “La La Land†won both the Directors Guild and Producers Guild awards, but lost to “Hidden Figures†in the Screen Actors Guild Award.†Given that “Hidden Figures†wasn’t nominated by the Director’s Guild, that’s a big advantage for “La La Land.â€
People are also reading…
Now add in a couple other factors and “La La Land†becomes an even better bet. Hollywood loves nothing more than to honor itself at the Oscars and none of the other Best Picture nominees are in the class of “La La Land.†It's a movie about the movies.
And then there’s the box office -- a factor that’s hard to deny in a close Oscar contest. “La La Land†has, so far, taken in $134 million, the 20th highest grossing film of 2016 and second of the Best Picture noms behind “Hidden Figures†($144 million).
“Moonlight,†seen as the film most likely to upset “La La Land†based on its artistic merit alone, has grossed just $21 million, the 102nd film of 2016.
So look for the award for Best Picture to go to “La La Land.†Here are my picks for the other awards:
Best Director: Damien Chazelle, “La La Land." The Directors Guild Award winner for best director has taken the best director Oscar 21 out of the last 25 years. Chazelle took the DGA prize for “La La Land,†making him the odds on favorite for the Academy Award. The major competition, again, is “Moonlight†director Barry Jenkins.
Best Actor: Casey Affleck, “Manchester By The Sea.†The Screen Actors Guild best actor winner has taken the Oscar 18 of the last 22 years. That award went to Denzel Washington for “Fences.†But Casey Affleck won England’s British Academy of Film and Television Arts best actor award and is the critic’s choice. He is a narrow favorite to beat the SAG trend.
Best Actress: Emma Stone, “La La Land.†Stone’s the best thing about “La La Land†and she’s been the Oscar favorite since the movie was released and took the SAG award. Natalie Portman was expected to be her major competition for her exquisite performance as Jacqueline Kennedy in “Jackie.†But Portman has gained little traction, making this one Stone’s to lose.
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight.†“Moonlight†is going to pick up a couple Oscars and Mahershala Ali’s performance has made him the favorite from the day the nominations were announced. He took the SAG award. With Jeff Bridges from "Hell or High Water" already having an Oscar, no real competition for Ali has emerged.
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis, “Fences.†If there’s a stone cold, lead pipe lock in Oscar 2017, it’s Viola Davis for “Fences.†All of the nominees in the category were excellent -- if I was voting, it would be for Naomie Harris in “Moonlight.†But Harris has won every award so far and will pick up the Oscar Sunday.
Original Screenplay: Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester By The Sea.†The screenplay is the weakest element in “La La Land.†That opens things up for Lonergan’s rich, detailed screenplay that is the heart of “Manchester By The Sea,†which he also directed.
Adapted Screenplay: Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight.†If, as is likely, “Moonlight†is shut out of Best Picture and Jenkins as Best Director, the adapted screenplay award becomes the big recognition for the man who made the year’s best indie film. August Wilson has an outside shot with “Fences,†but that movie felt too much like a play taken to the screen to win.
Cinematography and Editing: The final two categories in which “La La Land†and “Moonlight†are in a serious contest are cinematography and editing. It’s impressive that the low-budgeted “Moonlight†can compete at all -- I’d argue it should win both categories. But, once again, never go against the box office or the major studio production against the indie.
Look for “La La Land†to take the production design award and, as would be expected from a musical, the sound mixing score and song Oscars, the latter for “City of Stars.†That will bring the “La La Land†total to a dominating nine awards out of 14 nominations.
Foreign Language: “Toni Erdmann.†Picking the foreign language film winner can be tricky as, often, many of the nominated pictures haven’t made it to the U.S. and are only seen by a small percentage of Oscar voters. But this year is different. “Toni Erdmann,†the nearly-three-hour German comedy/drama was immediately the frontrunner.
Documentary: “O.J.: Made in America.†This is really a documentary miniseries for TV. But it got the requisite theatrical run to make it Oscar eligible and it’s a deserving favorite to top other impressive entries, including “I Am Not Your Negro†and “13.â€
Animated: This one’s Disney vs. Disney, with “Zootopia†and “Moana†as the favorites battling. In a close Oscar race, never, ever go against the box office. “Zootopia†made $341 million, while “Moana†took in $244 million.
Other likely winners: Makeup & Hairstyling, “Star Trek Beyond;" Sound Editing, ““Hacksaw Ridge;†Visual Effects, “The Jungle Book.†And anyone who thinks they know what pictures will win the three short film categories is kidding themselves -- there are no boxes and wheels in Oscar betting, so any guess is a good play.